The authors reply: We appreciate the points raised by Ertle and agree that a 20% reduction in firearm injuries due to a small segment of the gun-owning population attending NRA conventions seems implausibly large. However, several points must be noted. Our estimate has a large confidence interval, which means that a more “plausible,” smaller effect cannot be statistically distinguished from our estimate. Second, we know of no data on the empirical distribution of firearm injuries among gun owners. It is likely that firearm use and injuries are highly skewed such that a small segment of the gun-owning population accounts for a disproportionate share of firearm injuries. Therefore, a reduction in firearm use among a nonrandom group of gun owners could generate disproportionately large reductions in firearm injuries. Third, our study posits other “spillover” effects that include temporary closure of venues where guns are used, which could reduce firearm use among persons who do not attend NRA conventions. Although anecdotes support that possibility, the validity of that mechanism requires additional investigation.
Language: en
", language="en", issn="0028-4793", doi="10.1056/NEJMc1804096", url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1056/NEJMc1804096" }