@article{ref1,
title="Long-term trends in domestic US passenger travel: the past 110 years and the next 90",
journal="Transportation",
year="2017",
author="Schäfer, Andreas W.",
volume="44",
number="2",
pages="293-310",
abstract="Based upon a long-term historical data set of US passenger travel, a model is estimated to project aggregate transportation trends through 2100. One of the two model components projects total mobility (passenger-km traveled) per capita based on per person GDP and the expected utility of travel mode choices (logsum). The second model component has the functional form of a logit model, which assigns the projected travel demand to competing transportation modes. An iterative procedure ensures the average amount of travel time per person to remain at a pre-specified level through modifying the estimated value of time. The outputs from this model can be used as a first-order estimate of a future benchmark against which the effectiveness of various transportation policy measures or the impact of autonomous behavioral change can be assessed.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0049-4488",
doi="10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-015-9638-6"
}