@article{ref1,
title="Probabilistic modelling of forces of hail",
journal="Natural hazards",
year="2018",
author="Perera, Shihara and Lam, Nelson and Pathirana, Mahil and Zhang, Lihai and Ruan, Dong and Gad, Emad",
volume="91",
number="1",
pages="133-153",
abstract="Numerical modelling techniques enable forcing function at the point of contact in a hail impact to be predicted, but many models available in commercial software have not been verified by experiments. A recently developed deterministic model is only able to simulate the impact action of an idealised spherical hailstone. <br><br>RESULTS recorded from the impact testing of non-spherical simulated hail ice specimens show wide scatters and are different to spherical specimens. A stochastic model has been developed in this study to incorporate the variability of the modelling parameters representing the behaviour of non-spherical ice specimens and to generate time histories of contact force for given impact scenarios. A probabilistic model which was developed previously to provide predictions of the distribution of the size of hailstones in a severe category hailstorm has also been further developed to provide predictions of the maximum contact force values in probabilistic terms. For any given pre-defined forcing function denting into the surface of a steel plate can be estimated by finite element analysis or experimentally on a test machine. The new knowledge base introduced in this paper can be used by manufacturers and designers to re-assess existing products and in making improvements to future installations taking into account cost-benefit considerations.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0921-030X",
doi="10.1007/s11069-017-3117-7",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-017-3117-7"
}