@article{ref1,
title="The mapping of storm surge-prone areas and characterizing surge-producing cyclones in Leyte Gulf, Philippines",
journal="Natural hazards",
year="2018",
author="Rodrigo, Socorro Margarita T. and Villanoy, Cesar L. and Briones, Jeric C. and Bilgera, Princess Hope T. and Cabrera, Olivia C. and Narisma, Gemma Teresa T.",
volume="92",
number="3",
pages="1305-1320",
abstract="Historically, Leyte Gulf in central eastern Philippines has received catastrophic damage due to storm surges, the most recent of which was during Typhoon Haiyan in 2013. A city-level risk assessment was performed on Leyte Gulf through synthetic storm generation, high-resolution ocean modeling, and decision tree analyses. Cyclones were generated through a combination of a Poisson point process and Monte Carlo simulations. Wind and pressure fields generated from the cyclones were used in a storm surge model of Leyte Gulf developed on Delft3D. The output of these simulations was a synthetic record of extreme sea level events, which were used to estimate maximum surge heights for different return periods and to characterize surge-producing storm characteristics using decision tree analyses. The results showed that the area most prone to surges is the Tacloban-Basey area with a 2.8 ± 0.3 m surge occurring at a frequency of every 50 years. Nearby Palo area will likely receive a surge of 1.9 ± 0.4 m every 50 years while Giporlos-Salcedo area a surge of 1.0 ± 0.1 m. The decision tree analysis performed for each of these areas showed that for surges of 3-4 m, high-velocity winds (> 30 m/s) are consistently the main determining factor. For the areas, Tacloban, Basey, and Giporlos-Salcedo, wind speed was also the main determining factor for surge > 4 m.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0921-030X",
doi="10.1007/s11069-018-3252-9",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-018-3252-9"
}