@article{ref1,
title="A prognostic index for long-term outcome after successful acute phase cognitive therapy and interpersonal psychotherapy for major depressive disorder",
journal="Depression and anxiety",
year="2019",
author="van Bronswijk, Suzanne C. and Lemmens, Lotte H. J. M. and Keefe, John R. and Huibers, Marcus J. H. and DeRubeis, Robert J. and Peeters, Frenk P. M. L.",
volume="36",
number="3",
pages="252-261",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) has a highly recurrent nature. After successful treatment, it is important to identify individuals who are at risk of an unfavorable long-term course. Despite extensive research, there is no consensus yet on the clinically relevant predictors of long-term outcome in MDD, and no prediction models are implemented in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to create a prognostic index (PI) to estimate long-term depression severity after successful and high quality acute treatment for MDD. <br><br>METHODS: Data come from responders to cognitive therapy (CT) and interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT) in a randomized clinical trial (n = 85; CT = 45, IPT = 40). Primary outcome was depression severity, assessed with the Beck Depression Inventory II, measured throughout a 17-month follow-up phase. We examined 29 variables as potential predictors, using a model-based recursive partitioning method and bootstrap resampling in conjunction with backwards elimination. The selected predictors were combined into a PI. Individual PI scores were estimated using a cross-validation approach. <br><br>RESULTS: A total of three post-treatment predictors were identified: depression severity, hopelessness, and self-esteem. Cross-validated PI scores evidenced a strong correlation (r = 0.60) with follow-up depression severity. <br><br>CONCLUSION: Long-term predictions of MDD are multifactorial, involving a combination of variables that each has a small prognostic effect. If replicated and validated, the PI can be implemented to predict follow-up depression severity for each individual after acute treatment response, and to personalize long-term treatment strategies.<br><br>© 2018 The Authors. Depression and Anxiety published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1091-4269",
doi="10.1002/da.22868",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/da.22868"
}