@article{ref1,
title="Analysis of the uncertainty of fuel model parameters in wildland fire modelling of a boreal forest in north-east China",
journal="International journal of wildland fire",
year="2019",
author="Cai, Longyan and He, Hong S. and Liang, Yu and Wu, Zhiwei and Huang, Chao",
volume="28",
number="3",
pages="205-215",
abstract="Fire propagation is inevitably affected by fuel-model parameters during wildfire simulations and the uncertainty of the fuel-model parameters makes forecasting accurate fire behaviour very difficult. In this study, three different methods (Morris screening, first-order analysis and the Monte Carlo method) were used to analyse the uncertainty of fuel-model parameters with FARSITE model. The results of the uncertainty analysis showed that only a few fuel-model parameters markedly influenced the uncertainty of the model outputs, and many of the fuel-model parameters had little or no effect. The fire-spread rate is the driving force behind the uncertainty of other fire behaviours. Thus, the highly uncertain fuel-model parameters associated with spread rate should be used cautiously in wildfire simulations. Monte Carlo results indicated that the relationship between model input and output was non-linear and neglecting fuel-model parameter uncertainty of the model would magnify fire behaviours. Additionally, fuel-model parameters have high input uncertainty. Therefore, fuel-model parameters must be calibrated against actual fires. The highly uncertain fuel-model parameters with high spatial-temporal variability consisted of fuel-bed depth, live-shrub loading and 1-h time-lag loading are preferentially chosen as parameters to calibrate several wildfires.   Additional keywords: FARSITE, fire behaviour, fuel model, uncertainty analysis, wildfire modelling.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1049-8001",
doi="10.1071/WF18083",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF18083"
}