@article{ref1,
title="The incumbent, challenger, and population during revolution and civil war",
journal="Economics of peace and security journal",
year="2019",
author="Hausken, Kjell and Ncube, Mthuli",
volume="14",
number="2",
pages="e32-e32",
abstract="We consider revolutions and civil war involving an incumbent, a challenger, and the population. Revolutions are classified into eight outcomes. In four outcomes incumbent repression occurs (viewed as providing sub-threshold benefits such as public goods to the population). Accommodation occurs in the other four outcomes (benefits provision above a threshold). The incumbent and challenger fight each other. The incumbent may win and retain power or else lose, thereby causing standoff or coalition. In a standoff, which is costly, no one backs down and uncertainty exists about who is in power. In a coalition, which is less costly, the incumbent and challenger cooperate, compromise, and negotiate their differences. If the population successfully revolts against the incumbent, the challenger replaces the incumbent. Eighty-seven revolutions during 1961-2011, including the recent Arab spring revolutions, are classified into the eight outcomes. When repressive, the incumbent loses 46 revolutions, remains in power through 21 revolutions, and builds a coalition after 12 revolutions. When accommodative, the incumbent loses seven revolutions and builds a coalition after one revolution. The 87 revolutions are classified across geographic regions and by time-period.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1749-852X",
doi="10.15355/epsj.14.2.32",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.15355/epsj.14.2.32"
}