@article{ref1,
title="Better practices in the development and validation of recidivism risk assessments:  the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-4",
journal="Criminal justice policy review",
year="2019",
author="Duwe, Grant",
volume="30",
number="4",
pages="538-564",
abstract="This study examines the development and validation of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-4 (MnSOST-4) on a dataset consisting of 5,745 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2012. Bootstrap resampling was used to select predictors, and k-fold and split-sample methods were used to internally validate the MnSOST-4. Using sex offense reconviction within 4 years of release from prison as the failure criterion, the data showed that 130 (2.3%) offenders in the overall sample were recidivists. Multiple classification methods and performance metrics were used to develop the MnSOST-4 and evaluate its predictive performance on the test set. The results from the regularized logistic regression algorithm showed that the MnSOST-4 performed well in predicting sexual recidivism in the test set, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.835. Additional analyses on the test set revealed that the MnSOST-4 outperformed the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-3 (MnSOST-3), Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool-Revised (MnSOST-R), and Static-99 in predicting sexual reoffending.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0887-4034",
doi="10.1177/0887403417718608",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0887403417718608"
}