@article{ref1,
title="Impact evaluation of a parolee-based focused deterrence program on community-level violence",
journal="Criminal justice policy review",
year="2019",
author="Clark-Moorman, Kyleigh and Rydberg, Jason and McGarrell, Edmund F.",
volume="30",
number="9",
pages="1408-1430",
abstract="We estimate the impact of a parolee-based focused deterrence (&quot;pulling levers&quot;) intervention on community-level firearm and non-firearm violence in Rockford, Illinois, via a retrospective, quasi-experimental design. Focusing on incidents of firearm violence in Rockford over a period of 60 months (38 months pre-intervention, 22 months post-intervention), program impact is assessed using Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models, constructing a synthetic control-based counterfactual time series from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) data from 59 non-treated cities of similar size. Relative to the synthetic control counterfactual, the intervention was associated with significant reductions in both firearm and non-firearm violence, particularly robberies, ranging from 6% to 30%. Consistent with research at other sites, these findings support the notion that focused deterrence strategies centered on high-risk parolees may result in reductions in firearm violence at the community level. The BSTS approach is a useful application for producing counterfactuals in retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0887-4034",
doi="10.1177/0887403418812999",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0887403418812999"
}