@article{ref1,
title="Analytic probabilistic safety analysis under severe uncertainty",
journal="ASCE-ASME journal of risk and uncertainty in engineering systems. Part A, Civil engineering",
year="2020",
author="",
volume="6",
number="1",
pages="e04019019-e04019019",
abstract="Exact analytic expressions are given to evaluate the reliability of systems consisting of components, connected in parallel or series, subject to imprecise failure distributions. We also proposed a simplified version of the first-order reliability method to deal with imprecision. This development allows engineers to evaluate the reliability of systems without having to resort to optimization techniques and/or Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, this framework does not need to assume a distribution for the epistemic uncertainty, which permits a robust analysis even with limited data. In this way, the approach removes a significant barrier to the modeling of epistemic uncertainties in industrial probabilistic safety analysis workflows.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="2376-7642",
doi="10.1061/AJRUA6.0001028",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/AJRUA6.0001028"
}