@article{ref1,
title="Deaths of despair and Brexit votes: cross-local authority statistical analysis in England and Wales",
journal="American journal of public health",
year="2019",
author="Koltai, Jonathan and Varchetta, Francesco Maria and McKee, Martin and Stuckler, David",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="<i>Objectives.</i> To test the hypothesis that deaths of despair, a marker of social suffering, were associated with greater support for Brexit in the United Kingdom's 2016 European Union referendum.<i>Methods.</i> We used cross-local authority regression models of Brexit vote shares on changes in suicide and drug-related death rates before (2005-2007) and after the recession (2014-2016), adjusting for sociodemographic factors. The population comprised 345 local authorities in England and Wales.<i>Results.</i> Mortality rates were associated with voting patterns. An increase of 10 drug-related deaths per 100 000 was associated with a 15.25-percentage-point increase in Brexit votes (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.27, 20.24), while an increase of 10 suicides per 100 000 was associated with a 9.97-percentage-point increase in vote shares for Brexit (95% CI = 6.25, 13.70). These results were substantially attenuated after we adjusted for education, and reduced to nonsignificance for drug mortality (b = 2.18; 95% CI = -0.21, 4.57) and suicide (b = 0.94; 95% CI = -0.32, 2.21) upon inclusion of other sociodemographic factors.<i>Conclusions.</i> Worsening mortality correlated with Brexit votes. These phenomena appear to share similar antecedents. A rise in such deaths may point to deeper social problems that could have political consequences. (<i>Am J Public Health</i>. Published online ahead of print December 19, 2019: e1-e6. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2019.305488).<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0090-0036",
doi="10.2105/AJPH.2019.305488",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2019.305488"
}