@article{ref1,
title="The base rate study: developing base rates for risk factors and indicators for engagement in violent extremism",
journal="Journal of forensic sciences",
year="2020",
author="Clemmow, Caitlin and Schumann, Sandy and Salman, Nadine L. and Gill, Paul",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="Improvements have been made in identifying the prevalence of risk factors/indicators for violent extremism. A consistent problem is the lack of base rates. How to develop base rates is of equal concern. This study has two aims: (i) compare two methods for developing base rates; the Unmatched Count Technique (UCT) and direct questioning, (ii) generate base rates in a general population sample and compare these to a sample of lone-actor terrorists (n = 125). We surveyed 2108 subjects from the general population. Participants were recruited from an online access panel and randomly assigned to one of three conditions; direct survey, control, or UCT. Survey items were based on a lone-actor terrorist codebook developed from the wider literature. Direct questioning was more suitable under our study conditions where UCT resulted in deflation effects. Comparing the base rates identified a number of significant differences: (i) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated propensity indicators related to a cognitive susceptibility, and a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often; the general sample demonstrated protective factors more often, (ii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated situational indicators related to a crime- and/or violence-supportive morality more often, whereas the general sample experienced situational stressors more often, (iii) lone-actor terrorists demonstrated indicators related to exposure to extremism more often. <br><br>RESULTS suggest there are measurable differences in the prevalence of risk factors between lone-actor terrorists and the general population. However, no single factor &quot;predicts&quot; violent extremism. This bears implications for our understanding of the interrelation of risk and protective factors, and for the risk assessment of violent extremism.<br><br>© 2020 The Authors. Journal of Forensic Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American Academy of Forensic Sciences.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0022-1198",
doi="10.1111/1556-4029.14282",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1556-4029.14282"
}