@article{ref1,
title="Traffic forecast inaccuracy in transportation: a literature review of roads and railways projects",
journal="Transportation",
year="2020",
author="Cruz, Carlos Oliveira and Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda",
volume="47",
number="4",
pages="1571-1606",
abstract="The inaccuracy of traffic forecasts has long stood as a central research theme in the field of infrastructure and transportation studies. The literature presents several motives for this phenomenon, ranging from a political bias, insufficient technical preparation, changing urban patterns, and economic dynamics. Uncertainty due to the inaccuracy of forecasts can have a profound impact on the infrastructure development process, right through from the preliminary studies up until the operation and re-negotiation of contracts (in cases when projects are developed using a concessions model). This paper provides an extensive systematic review of forecast inaccuracy in roads and railways projects (analyzing trends, causes, and results). The research found that: (1) forecasts in rail projects are generally more optimistic than in road projects; (2) over the last couple of decades the accuracy of forecasts has not improved significantly, and; (3) there has been a generalized ramp-up effect in forecasts.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0049-4488",
doi="10.1007/s11116-019-09972-y",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11116-019-09972-y"
}