@article{ref1,
title="Modelling the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent discipline against children",
journal="Child abuse and neglect",
year="2020",
author="Fabbri, Camilla and Bhatia, Amiya and Petzold, Max and Jugder, Munkhbadar and Guedes, Alessandra and Cappa, Claudia and Devries, Karen",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic could increase violence against children at home. However, collecting empirical data on violence is challenging due to ethical, safety, and data quality concerns. <br><br>OBJECTIVE: This study estimated the anticipated effect of COVID-19 on violent discipline at home using multivariable predictive regression models. PARTICIPANTS: Children aged 1-14 years and household members from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in Nigeria, Mongolia, and Suriname before the COVID-19 pandemic were included. <br><br>METHODS: A conceptual model of how the COVID-19 pandemic could affect risk factors for violent discipline was developed. Country specific multivariable linear models were used to estimate the association between selected variables from MICS and a violent discipline score which captured the average combination of violent disciplinary methods used in the home. A review of the literature informed the development of quantitative assumptions about how COVID-19 would impact the selected variables under a &quot;high restrictions&quot; pandemic scenario, approximating conditions expected during a period of intense response measures, and a &quot;lower restrictions&quot; scenario with easing of COVID-19 restrictions but with sustained economic impacts. These assumptions were used to estimate changes in violent discipline scores. <br><br>RESULTS: Under a &quot;high restrictions&quot; scenario there would be a 35%-46% increase in violent discipline scores in Nigeria, Mongolia and Suriname, and under a &quot;lower restrictions&quot; scenario there would be between a 4%-6% increase in violent discipline scores in these countries. <br><br>CONCLUSION: Policy makers need to plan for increases in violent discipline during successive waves of lockdowns.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0145-2134",
doi="10.1016/j.chiabu.2020.104897",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.chiabu.2020.104897"
}