@article{ref1,
title="Modifiable risk factors for inpatient violence in psychiatric hospital: prospective study and prediction model",
journal="Psychological medicine",
year="2021",
author="Fazel, Seena and Toynbee, Mark and Ryland, Howard and Vazquez-Montes, Maria and Al-Taiar, Hasanen and Wolf, Achim and Aziz, Omar and Khosla, Vivek and Gulati, Gautam and Fanshawe, Thomas",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Violence perpetrated by psychiatric inpatients is associated with modifiable factors. Current structured approaches to assess inpatient violence risk lack predictive validity and linkage to interventions. <br><br>METHODS: Adult psychiatric inpatients on forensic and general wards in three psychiatric hospitals were recruited and followed up prospectively for 6 months. Information on modifiable (dynamic) risk factors were collected every 1-4 weeks, and baseline background factors. Data were transferred to a web-based monitoring system (FOxWeb) to calculate a total dynamic risk score. Outcomes were extracted from an incident-reporting system recording aggression and interpersonal violence. The association between total dynamic score and violent incidents was assessed by multilevel logistic regression and compared with dynamic score excluded. <br><br>RESULTS: We recruited 89 patients and conducted 624 separate assessments (median 5/patient). Mean age was 39 (s.d. 12.5) years with 20% (n = 18) female. Common diagnoses were schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (70%, n = 62) and personality disorders (20%, n = 18). There were 93 violent incidents. Factors contributing to violence risk were a total dynamic score of ⩾1 (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.25-9.20), 10-year increase in age (OR 0.67, 0.47-0.96), and female sex (OR 2.78, 1.04-7.40). Non-significant associations with schizophrenia-spectrum disorder were found (OR 0.50, 0.20-1.21). In a fixed-effect model using all covariates, AUC was 0.77 (0.72-0.82) and 0.75 (0.70-0.80) when the dynamic score was excluded. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: In predicting violence risk in individuals with psychiatric disorders, modifiable factors added little incremental value beyond static ones in a psychiatric inpatient setting. Future work should make a clear distinction between risk factors that assist in prediction and those linked to needs.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0033-2917",
doi="10.1017/S0033291721002063",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0033291721002063"
}