@article{ref1,
title="Estimation method of natural demand of urban public bicycle system",
journal="Zhejiang Daxue Xuebao (Gongxue Ban)",
year="2016",
author="Chen, Ning and Liu, Dong-Xu and Wu, Man-Jin and Dong, HOng-Zhao",
volume="50",
number="2",
pages="265-270",
abstract="An estimation method of natural demand was proposed in order to reflect the real demand of the self-service station of urban public bicycle system (PBS). The method can describe not only constrained demand shown directly by the PBS's historical data but also potential demand covered by the facility limitations. An improved discrete choice Multi-logit model was conducted according to PBS's own characteristics. A utility function of each travel mode for public transportation was established. The PBS's contribution rate in the total public transportation system was estimated. The natural demand of a self-service station was evaluated based on the PBS's historical data after calculating the correlation coefficient between the calculation value and the survey value of PBS's contribution rate. Experiments were conducted in Hangzhou PBS. <br><br>RESULTS show that the value of the natural demand calculated by the estimation method is identical with the constrained demand for the self-service station in flat period, but is obviously larger than the constrained demand in peak period. The natural demand is nearly equal to the unconstrained demand in the case of the service station by human duty, which means the PBS's real demand. © 2016, Zhejiang University Press.<p /> <p>Language: zh</p>",
language="zh",
issn="1008-973X",
doi="10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2016.02.010",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.3785/j.issn.1008-973X.2016.02.010"
}