@article{ref1,
title="A multivariate model for analyzing crime scene information: predicting stranger, solo offender, and money-oriented motive of Japanese homicides",
journal="Homicide studies",
year="2016",
author="Fujita, Goro and Watanabe, Kazumi and Yokota, Kaeko and Suzuki, Mamoru and Wachi, Taeko and Otsuka, Yusuke and Kuraishi, Hiroki",
volume="20",
number="4",
pages="295-320",
abstract="This study examines the validity of a statistical offender profiling technique that predicts the multi-dimensional classification of homicide offenders. Analyzing 539 Japanese homicide cases, we constructed multivariate prediction models that infer classifications defined by three dichotomous variables (stranger offender, solo offender, money-oriented motive) on the basis of crime scene information. We evaluated the validity of the models with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and found the models to have moderate accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] =.73 to.82). We discussed the results from the perspective of the offender's rational choices in the crime scene and crime specialization.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="1088-7679",
doi="10.1177/1088767915613828",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1088767915613828"
}