@article{ref1,
title="Planning adaptive strategies for urban transport and land use using scenario-building",
journal="Transportation research procedia",
year="2022",
author="Ariza-Álvarez, Amor and Soria-Lara, Julio A. and Aguilera-Benavente, Francisco",
volume="60",
number="",
pages="274-281",
abstract="Incorporating low probability and high impact events in land use and transport planning (e.g., COVID-19 pandemic) remains as a challenge. Scenario-building techniques are frequently used to examine and incorporate those deep uncertainties into planning processes. However, limited attention has been paid to explore how scenario-building visions can contribute to design adaptation policy pathways, which further increases land use and transport resilience against unexpected and low probability events. This paper initially shows a theoretical framework that links scenario-building visions to adaptive planning, defining four potential adaptation policy pathways: linear, priority-oriented, outcomes-oriented, and winding. Such adaptation pathways are based on comparing both priority of planning goals and outcomes differences across a set of long-term visions and the basic policy pathway adopted. The theoretical approach is supported by an empirical analysis implemented in the Madrid Metropolitan Area (Spain), where a scenario-building process has been developed, creating three long-term visions that differ from the basic pathway: &quot;Non-motorized city centers&quot;, &quot;Overpopulation&quot;, and &quot;High levels of insecurity in urban areas&quot;. The comparison between long-term visions and the basic pathway was made by surveying a group of experts and stakeholders, distilling different adaptation pathways for the case study. The obtained results support the theoretical framework described, opening a discussion about its robustness, implementability, effectiveness, and limitations for real planning processes.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="2352-1465",
doi="10.1016/j.trpro.2021.12.036",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2021.12.036"
}