@article{ref1,
title="Future injury mortality burden attributable to compound hot extremes will significantly increase in China",
journal="Science of the total environment",
year="2022",
author="Luo, Liying and Zeng, Fangfang and Bai, Guoxia and Gong, Weiwei and Ren, Zhoupeng and Hu, Jianxiong and He, Guanhao and Shi, Heng and Lin, Ziqiang and Liu, Tao and Yin, Peng and Qin, Mingfang and Hou, Zhulin and Meng, Ruilin and Zhou, Chunliang and Dong, Xiaomei and Pingcuo, Zhuoma and Xiao, Yize and Yu, Min and Huang, Biao and Xu, XiaoJun and Lin, Lifeng and Xiao, Jianpeng and Zhong, Jieming and Jin, Donghui and Li, Yajie and Gama, Cangjue and Xiong, Peng and Xu, Yiqing and Lv, Lingshuang and Zeng, Weilin and Li, Xing and Zhou, Maigeng and Huang, Cunrui and Ma, Wenjun",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="BACKGROUND: As climate change, compound hot extremes (CHEs), daytime and nighttime persistent hot extremes, are projected to become much more frequent and intense, which may pose a serious threat to human health. However, evidence on the impact of CHEs on injury is rare. <br><br>METHODS: We collected injury death data and daily meteorological data from six Chinese provinces during 2013-2018. A time-stratified case-crossover design with two-stage analytic approach was applied to assess the associations of CHEs with injury mortality by intention, mechanism, age and gender. Using the projected daily temperatures of five General Circulation Models (GCMs), we projected the frequency of CHEs and CHEs-attributable mortality burden of injury under three Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. <br><br>RESULTS: CHEs were significantly associated with increased injury mortality risk (RR = 1.14, 95%CI: 1.09-1.19), with strong effects on unintentional injuries (RR = 1.16, 95%CI:1.11,1.22) and intentional injuries (RR = 1.11, 95%CI:0.99,1.25). Female (RR = 1.21,95%CI: 1.13-1.29) and the elderly (RR = 1.30, 95%CI: 1.22-1.39) were more susceptible to CHEs. Both the frequency and injury mortality burden of CHEs showed a steep rising trend under RCP8.5 scenario, with a 7.37-fold and 8.22-fold increase respectively, by the end of the century, especially in southern, eastern, central and northwestern China. <br><br>CONCLUSION: CHEs were associated with increased injury mortality risk, and the CHEs-attributable injury mortality burden was projected to aggravate substantially in the future as global warming. It is urgent to develop targeted adaptation policies to alleviate the health burden of CHEs.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0048-9697",
doi="10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157019",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157019"
}