@article{ref1,
title="Modelling probability of breakdown in interurban expressways considering longitudinal alignments of adjacent sags",
journal="Proceedings of the Conference of Japan Society of Traffic Engineers",
year="2022",
author="Kasai, Makoto and Hasegawa, Hironobu and Xing, Jian",
volume="42",
number="",
pages="449-453",
abstract="It is important to know what kind of vertical alignment sag becomes a bottleneck in terms of capacity in order to approach the congestion generation mechanism. After confirming that the longitudinal slope change rate used in the previous research, which indicates the looseness of the sag, is an index that accurately replaces the longitudinal curve radius to a certain extent, the following two studies will be conducted. 1) Construct a logistic regression model that explains traffic congestion on 4 routes including Tomei Expressway, Kan-Etsu Expressway and Joban Expressway, in terms of traffic volume and rate of change in longitudinal sag. 2) Construct a logistic regression model that explains the occurrence of traffic jams by non-linearly transforming the longitudinal slope change rate so that it has a peak at a certain longitudinal slope change rate. The model has the highest explanatory power when the longitudinal slope change rate is about 0.5%/km, and the sag is neither too steep nor too loose. be done.   ===  どのような縦断線形のサグが容量上のボトルネックとなるかを知ることは渋滞発生メカニズムに迫る上で重要である。既往研究で用いたサグの緩さを表す縦断勾配変化率が縦断曲線半径を一定程度的確に代替する指標であることを確認した上で、以下の 2 検討を行なう。1)東北道のみでの検討だったものに東名、関越道、常磐道を加えた 4 路線で渋滞発生を交通量および前後サグの縦断勾配変化率で説明させるロジスティック回帰モデルを構築する。2)縦断勾配変化率を、ある縦断勾配変化率でピークを持つような非線形変換を行ない渋滞発生を説明するロジスティック回帰モデルを構築する。縦断勾配変化率が 0.5%/km 程度のとき最も説明力が高いモデルとなり、当該サグが急すぎず緩すぎず、1 つ上流サグおよび 1 つ下流サグが急であるほど渋滞しやすい傾向がみられる。<p /> <p>Language: ja</p>",
language="ja",
issn="2758-3635",
doi="10.14954/jsteproceeding.42.0_449",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.14954/jsteproceeding.42.0_449"
}