@article{ref1,
title="Risk factors of chronic course of anxiety and depressive disorders: a 3-year longitudinal study in the general population",
journal="Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology",
year="2023",
author="Remmerswaal, Karin C. P. and ten Have, Margreet and de Graaf, Ron and van Balkom, Anton J. L. M. and Penninx, Brenda W. J. H. and Batelaan, Neeltje M.",
volume="ePub",
number="ePub",
pages="ePub-ePub",
abstract="BACKGROUND: Risk factors of a chronic course of anxiety and depressive disorders were previously studied using a limited definition of recovery, i.e. remission of the index disorder. However, frequently, other mental disorders are present at follow-up. Thus, the course of anxiety and depressive disorders was represented too rosy and the identified determinants may not apply when using a broader, more realistic definition. Additionally, physical health risk factors have often been ignored. <br><br>METHODS: Data were used from two waves of the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2 including 509 respondents with 12-month anxiety disorder (panic disorder, social phobia, agoraphobia or generalized anxiety disorder) or/and major depressive disorder at baseline. Chronic course was defined as (1) presence of index disorder; and (2) presence of any anxiety, mood or substance use disorder (overall course) during the subsequent three years. Regression models were built with sociodemographic, clinical, and lifestyle/physical health indicators. Predictive accuracy was evaluated with area under the curve (AUC). <br><br>RESULTS: Chronic course of the index disorder was present among 24.8% of cases, whereas 38.7% had a chronic overall course. The accuracy of prediction of chronic course of the index disorder was suboptimal (AUC = 0.68) compared to prediction of overall course (AUC = 0.75). The main risk factors were baseline number of mental disorders, neuroticism, childhood abuse, parental psychopathology and alcohol use. Lifestyle and physical health indicators were marginally relevant. <br><br>CONCLUSION: Transdiagnostic risk factors are important in predicting overall course of anxiety and depressive disorders but cannot accurately predict chronic course of the index disorder.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0933-7954",
doi="10.1007/s00127-023-02591-0",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00127-023-02591-0"
}