@article{ref1,
title="The contribution of armed conflict to vulnerability to disaster: empirical evidence from 1989 to 2018",
journal="International journal of disaster risk reduction",
year="2023",
author="Caso, Nicolás and Hilhorst, Dorothea and Mena, Rodrigo",
volume="95",
number="",
pages="e103881-e103881",
abstract="Disasters and armed conflicts often occur together, leading to severe consequences for affected populations. While qualitative investigations have explored how conflict can influence vulnerability to disasters, there is still a lack of systematic quantitative studies that provide broader evidence on the contribution of conflict to vulnerability. Although existing qualitative work has made progress in understanding potential mechanisms, large-scale quantitative studies are crucial for comprehending the scope of this relationship and attempting to isolate associations between specific variables. This study presents a statistical model using extensive large-N, cross-country data to address this research gap and analyse the conflict-disaster relationship. Analysing data from 157 countries between 1989 and 2018, we found a strong positive correlation between armed conflict and disasters. The results remained consistent across various model specifications and robustness checks. In countries experiencing armed conflict, disaster occurrence was observed 5% more frequently, disaster-related mortality per year was 34% higher, and deaths per million inhabitants were 16% higher compared to countries without conflict. While there is evidence that conflict can occasionally intensify disaster hazards, there is a greater evidence suggesting that the relationship between conflict and disaster operates through mechanisms that negatively affect vulnerability and response capacity.<p /> <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="2212-4209",
doi="10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103881",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103881"
}