@article{ref1,
title="Expert Judgment-Based Risk Assessment Using Statistical Scenario Analysis: A Case Study-Running the Bulls in Pamplona (Spain)",
journal="Risk analysis",
year="2008",
author="Mallor, Fermin and García-Olaverri, Carmen and Gómez-Elvira, Sagrario and Mateo-Collazas, Pedro",
volume="28",
number="4",
pages="1003-1019",
abstract="In this article, we present a methodology to assess the risk incurred by a participant in an activity involving danger of injury. The lack of high-quality historical data for the case considered prevented us from constructing a sufficiently detailed statistical model. It was therefore decided to generate a risk assessment model based on expert judgment. The methodology is illustrated in a real case context: the assessment of risk to participants in a San Fermin bull-run in Pamplona (Spain). The members of the panel of &quot;experts on the bull-run&quot; represented very different perspectives on the phenomenon: runners, surgeons and other health care personnel, journalists, civil defense workers, security staff, organizers, herdsmen, authors of books on the bull-run, etc. We consulted 55 experts. Our methodology includes the design of a survey instrument to elicit the experts' views and the statistical and mathematical procedures used to aggregate their subjective opinions. <p>Language: en</p>",
language="en",
issn="0272-4332",
doi="10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01098.x",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1539-6924.2008.01098.x"
}