@article{ref1,
title="The Use and Validity of a Prediction Instrument, I. A Reformulation of the Use of a Prediction Instrument",
journal="American journal of sociology",
year="1953",
author="Goodman, L. A.",
volume="58",
number="5",
pages="503-510",
abstract="On the basis of the analysis of experience tables alone, the use of a prediction instrument as a decision-making procedure which replaces the procedure in use is found to be unjustified. The experience tables are determined in part by the actual decision-making procedure in use. Hence any analysis of a prediction instrument by experience tables alone must be made relative to the actual decision-making procedure. This calls for reformulating the use of prediction. The proposed reformulation involves treating prediction as a &quot;red flag&quot; in the final stage of the decision-making process. It also introduces explicitly the determination of social costs in the use of prediction.<p />",
language="",
issn="0002-9602",
doi="10.1086/221203",
url="http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/221203"
}