%0 Journal Article
%T Revising probability estimates: why increasing likelihood means increasing impact
%J Journal of personality and social psychology
%D 2016
%A Maglio, Sam J.
%A Polman, Evan
%V 111
%N 2
%P 141-158
%X Forecasted probabilities rarely stay the same for long. Instead, they are subject to constant revision-moving upward or downward, uncertain events become more or less likely. Yet little is known about how people interpret probability estimates beyond static snapshots, like a 30% chance of rain. Here, we consider the cognitive, affective, and behavioral consequences of revisions to probability forecasts. Stemming from a lay belief that revisions signal the emergence of a trend, we find in 10 studies (comprising uncertain events such as weather, climate change, sex, sports, and wine) that upward changes to event-probability (e.g., increasing from 20% to 30%) cause events to feel less remote than downward changes (e.g., decreasing from 40% to 30%), and subsequently change people's behavior regarding those events despite the revised event-probabilities being the same. Our research sheds light on how revising the probabilities for future events changes how people manage those uncertain events. (PsycINFO Database Record<br><br>(c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).<p /> <p>Language: en</p>
%G en
%I American Psychological Association
%@ 0022-3514
%U http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/pspa0000058