%0 Journal Article %T Validation of a youth suicide risk calculator in an adult sample with bipolar disorder %J Journal of affective disorders %D 2023 %A Fiedorowicz, Jess G. %A Merranko, John A. %A Goldstein, Tina R. %A Heather Hower, M. S. W. %A Iyengar, Satish %A Hafeman, Danella M. %A Hunt, Jeffrey I. %A Strober, Michael %A Keller, Martin B. %A Goldstein, Benjamin I. %A Diler, Rasim S. %A Siddiqi, Sara %A Birmaher, Boris %V ePub %N ePub %P ePub-ePub %X BACKGROUND: Bipolar disorder (BD) conveys the highest risk of suicide of all mental disorders. We sought to externally validate a risk calculator (RC) of suicide attempts developed in youth with BD from the Course and Outcome of Bipolar Youth (COBY) study in an adult sample.

METHODS: A prospective cohort of adults with BD from the National Institute of Mental Health Collaborative Depression Study (CDS; N = 427; mean (+/- SD) age at intake (36 +/- 13 years)) was secondarily analyzed to validate the COBY RC for one-year risk of suicide attempts/deaths. Nine of the ten predictor variables from the COBY RC were available in the CDS and used: age, age of mood disorder onset, first and second (partial) degree family history of suicide, history of psychotic symptoms, substance use disorder, prior suicide attempt, socioeconomic status, and non-suicidal self-injury (prospectively, incompletely at baseline).

RESULTS: Over a mean (SD) follow-up of 19 (10) years, 29 % of the CDS sample attempted suicide. The RC predicted suicide attempts/deaths over one-year follow-up with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.78 (95 % CI 0.75-0.80). The RC performed slightly better in those with a younger age of mood disorder onset. LIMITATIONS: Clinical samples may limit generalizability; the RC does not assess more acute suicide risk.

CONCLUSIONS: One-year risk of suicide attempts/deaths can be predicted with acceptable accuracy in youth and adults with BD, comparable to commonly used RCs to predict cardiovascular risk. This RC may help identify higher-risk individuals with BD for personalized treatment and research. https://cobysuicideattemptsrc.shinyapps.io/Shiny.

Language: en

%G en %I Elsevier Publishing %@ 0165-0327 %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jad.2023.11.066