%0 Journal Article %T Heat stress increases long-term human migration in rural Pakistan %J Nature climate change %D 2014 %A Mueller, V. %A Gray, C. %A Kosec, K. %V 4 %N %P 182-185 %X Human migration attributable to climate events has recently received significant attention from the academic and policy communities (1-2). Quantitative evidence on the relationship between individual, permanent migration and natural disasters is limited (3-9). A 21-year longitudinal survey conducted in rural Pakistan (1991-2012) provides a unique opportunity to understand the relationship between weather and long-term migration. We link individual-level information from this survey to satellite-derived measures of climate variability and control for potential confounders using a multivariate approach. We find that flooding-a climate shock associated with large relief efforts-has modest to insignificant impacts on migration. Heat stress, however-which has attracted relatively little relief-consistently increases the long-term migration of men, driven by a negative effect on farm and non-farm income. Addressing weather-related displacement will require policies that both enhance resilience to climate shocks and lower barriers to welfare-enhancing population movements.

Language: en

%G en %I Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group %@ 1758-678X %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2103