%0 Journal Article %T Post-hoc validation of the Conley Scale in predicting the risk of falling with older in-hospital medical patients: findings from a multicentre longitudinal study %J Aging clinical and experimental research %D 2015 %A Palese, Alvisa %A Gonella, Silvia %A Lant, Anna %A Guarnier, Annamaria %A Barelli, Paolo %A Zambiasi, Paola %A Allegrini, Elisabetta %A Bazoli, Letizia %A Casson, Paola %A Marin, Meri %A Padovan, Marisa %A Picogna, Michele %A Taddia, Patrizia %A Salmaso, Daniele %A Chiari, Paolo %A Frison, Tiziana %A Marognolli, Oliva %A Canzan, Federica %A Ambrosi, Elisa %A Saiani, Luisa %V 28 %N 1 %P 139-146 %X BACKGROUND: The Conley Scale is one of the most widespread fall-risk screening tools in medical unit settings, despite the lack of data regarding its validity in patients currently admitted to these units. AIMS: Establishing the validity of the Conley Scale in identifying patients at risk of falling in an acute medical setting.

METHODS: A 6-months longitudinal study in 12 acute medical units from September 2012 to March 2013, a total of 1464 patients with ≥65 years of age were consecutively enrolled and evaluated with the Conley Scale within 24 h of admission. A construct validity, internal consistency, and a priori and a posteriori predictive validity study was performed.

RESULTS: The explorative factor analysis showed a two-factor structure explaining a total variance of 48.3 %: previous history (30.41 %), and physical and cognitive impairment (17.9 %). The scale reported a poor internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.465) and the capability to correctly identify 18/649 patients as being at risk of falling, whereas the negative predictive value was 98.5 %. The sensitivity and specificity values were 60.0 and 55.9 %, respectively. No difference emerged between patients scored as at risk and those scored as not at risk in the time elapsed from admission to the first fall (HR = 0.600, 95 % CI 0.289-2.247 p = .166).

DISCUSSION: The Conley Scale is not able to predict falls in elderly acute medical patients, and has reported poor internal consistency and accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS: More studies are needed to develop appropriate tools to predict the risk of falling in elderly individuals admitted to an acute medical setting.

Language: en

%G en %I Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group %@ 1594-0667 %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40520-015-0378-4