%0 Journal Article
%T Post-hoc validation of the Conley Scale in predicting the risk of falling with older in-hospital medical patients: findings from a multicentre longitudinal study
%J Aging clinical and experimental research
%D 2015
%A Palese, Alvisa
%A Gonella, Silvia
%A Lant, Anna
%A Guarnier, Annamaria
%A Barelli, Paolo
%A Zambiasi, Paola
%A Allegrini, Elisabetta
%A Bazoli, Letizia
%A Casson, Paola
%A Marin, Meri
%A Padovan, Marisa
%A Picogna, Michele
%A Taddia, Patrizia
%A Salmaso, Daniele
%A Chiari, Paolo
%A Frison, Tiziana
%A Marognolli, Oliva
%A Canzan, Federica
%A Ambrosi, Elisa
%A Saiani, Luisa
%V 28
%N 1
%P 139-146
%X BACKGROUND: The Conley Scale is one of the most widespread fall-risk screening tools in medical unit settings, despite the lack of data regarding its validity in patients currently admitted to these units. AIMS: Establishing the validity of the Conley Scale in identifying patients at risk of falling in an acute medical setting.
METHODS: A 6-months longitudinal study in 12 acute medical units from September 2012 to March 2013, a total of 1464 patients with ≥65 years of age were consecutively enrolled and evaluated with the Conley Scale within 24 h of admission. A construct validity, internal consistency, and a priori and a posteriori predictive validity study was performed.
RESULTS: The explorative factor analysis showed a two-factor structure explaining a total variance of 48.3 %: previous history (30.41 %), and physical and cognitive impairment (17.9 %). The scale reported a poor internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.465) and the capability to correctly identify 18/649 patients as being at risk of falling, whereas the negative predictive value was 98.5 %. The sensitivity and specificity values were 60.0 and 55.9 %, respectively. No difference emerged between patients scored as at risk and those scored as not at risk in the time elapsed from admission to the first fall (HR = 0.600, 95 % CI 0.289-2.247 p = .166).
DISCUSSION: The Conley Scale is not able to predict falls in elderly acute medical patients, and has reported poor internal consistency and accuracy.
CONCLUSIONS: More studies are needed to develop appropriate tools to predict the risk of falling in elderly individuals admitted to an acute medical setting.
Language: en
%G en %I Holtzbrinck Springer Nature Publishing Group %@ 1594-0667 %U http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40520-015-0378-4