TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2010//
TI  - Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes
JO  - Science
A1  - Bender, Morris A.
A1  - Knutson, Thomas R.
A1  - Tuleya, Robert E.
A1  - Sirutis, Joseph J.
A1  - Vecchi, Gabriel A.
A1  - Garner, Stephen T.
A1  - Held, Isaac M.
SP  - 454
EP  - 458
VL  - 327
IS  - 5964
N2  - Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0036-8075
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1180568
ID  - ref1
ER  -