TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2011//
TI  - Ten-year risk of all-cause mortality: Assessment of a risk prediction algorithm in a French general population
JO  - European journal of epidemiology
A1  - Bérard, Emilie
A1  - Bongard, Vanina
A1  - Arveiler, Dominique
A1  - Amouyel, Philippe
A1  - Wagner, Aline
A1  - Dallongeville, Jean
A1  - Haas, Bernadette
A1  - Cottel, Dominique
A1  - Ruidavets, Jean-Bernard
A1  - Ferrières, Jean
SP  - 359
EP  - 368
VL  - 26
IS  - 5
N2  - While assessment of global cardiovascular risk is uniformly recommended for risk factor management, prediction of all-cause death has seldom been considered in available charts. We established an updated algorithm to predict absolute 10-year risk of all-cause mortality in apparently healthy subjects living in France, a country with high life expectancy. Analyses were based on the Third French MONICA Survey on cardiovascular risk factors (1995-1996) carried out in 3,208 participants from the general population aged 35-64. Vital status was obtained 10 years after inclusion and assessment of determinants of mortality was based on multivariable Cox modelling. One-hundred-fifty-six deaths were recorded. Independent determinants of mortality were living area (Northern France), older age, male gender, no high-school completion, smoking, systolic blood pressure ≥ 160 mmHg, LDL-cholesterol ≥ 5.2 mmol/l, and diabetes. Score sheets were developed to easily estimate 10-year risk of death. For example, a non diabetic, heavy smoker, 46-year old man, living in South-Western France, who did not complete high-school, with LDL-cholesterol ≥ 5.2 mmol/l and systolic blood pressure < 160 mmHg, has a 17% probability of death in the ten coming years. The C-statistic of the prediction model was 0.76 [95% CI: 0.72-0.80] with a degree of overoptimism estimated at 0.0058 in a bootstrap sample. Calibration was satisfying: P value for Hosmer-Lemeshow χ(2) test was 0.483. This prediction algorithm is a simple tool for guiding practitioners towards a more or less aggressive management of risk factors in apparently healthy subjects.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0393-2990
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10654-010-9541-6
ID  - ref1
ER  -