TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2011//
TI  - Pattern in escalations in insurgent and terrorist activity
JO  - Science
A1  - Johnson, Neil
A1  - Carran, Spencer
A1  - Botner, Joel
A1  - Fontaine, Kyle
A1  - Laxague, Nathan
A1  - Nuetzel, Philip
A1  - Turnley, Jessica
A1  - Tivnan, Brian
SP  - 81
EP  - 84
VL  - 333
IS  - 6038
N2  - In military planning, it is important to be able to estimate not only the number of fatalities but how often attacks that result in fatalities will take place. We uncovered a simple dynamical pattern that may be used to estimate the escalation rate and timing of fatal attacks. The time difference between fatal attacks by insurgent groups within individual provinces in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and by terrorist groups operating worldwide, gives a potent indicator of the later pace of lethal activity.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0036-8075
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1205068
ID  - ref1
ER  -