TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2008//
TI  - The Incidence of Civil War: Theory and Evidence
JO  - NBER working papers series
A1  - Persson, Torsten
SP  - w14585
EP  - w14585
VL  - 2008
IS  - online
N2  - This paper studies the incidence of civil war over time. We put forward a canonical model of civil war, which relates the incidence of conflict to circumstances, institutions and features of the underlying economy and polity. We use this model to derive testable predictions and to interpret the cross-sectional and times-series variations in civil conflict. Our most novel emprical finding is that higher world market prices of exported, as well as imported, commodities are strong and significant predictors of higher within-country incidence of civil war.<p /> 
LA  - 
SN  - 0898-2937
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/
ID  - ref1
ER  -