TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2012//
TI  - Estimating separation distance loss probability between aircraft in uncontrolled airspace in simulation
JO  - Safety science
A1  - Morio, Jérôme
A1  - Lang, Thibault
A1  - Tallec, Claude Le
SP  - 995
EP  - 1004
VL  - 50
IS  - 4
N2  - In this article, collision probability between aircraft in uncontrolled airspace is estimated. For that purpose, a large database of aircraft trajectories in the vicinity of Saint-Cyr-l'Ecole airfield (France) is considered and maps of probability collision from simulated aircraft are then estimated. Since the collision between aircraft is a rare event, we applied an importance splitting estimation technique rather than crude Monte Carlo simulations to reduce the variance of the probability estimation. In this study, we demonstrate the high local variability of collision probability in uncontrolled airspace and conclude on the difficulty to set general probability requirements.<p />
LA  - en
SN  - 0925-7535
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2011.12.014
ID  - ref1
ER  -