TY  - JOUR
PY  - 1982//
TI  - Accurate reliability prediction
JO  - Reliability engineering
A1  - Durr, A.C.
SP  - 475
EP  - 485
VL  - 3
IS  - 6
N2  - The requirement of a design to life cycle cost model for an accurate reliability prediction method that can be applied very early in a project's life is discussed. Current methods either lack accuracy or cannot be applied until extensive details of the equipment are available. Based empirically on the data, a model has been developed that uses a Weibull distribution of time between failures combined with time-variable failure rates. It assesses the equipment's function and technology and, in association with a modified parts count prediction, produces predictions that are both accurate and timely. The analysis has shown that the accuracy has improved from 30% of predictions within one standard deviation of the achieved reliability based on a straight parts count prediction, to 70% based on the Weibull time-between-failures model.<p /> 
LA  - 
SN  - 0143-8174
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0143-8174(82)90037-3
ID  - ref1
ER  -