TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2013//
TI  - Conflict probability estimation between aircraft with dynamic importance splitting
JO  - Safety science
A1  - Jacquemart, Damien
A1  - Morio, Jérôme
SP  - 94
EP  - 100
VL  - 51
IS  - 1
N2  - In this article, conflict probability between aircraft in uncontrolled airspace is estimated. For that purpose, one reviews how to characterize aircraft trajectories with stochastic processes. Indeed, Markov chain model enables us to simulate aircraft trajectories. Conflict probabilities can be estimated with Monte Carlo simulations. Nevertheless, since Monte Carlo methods are not efficient to estimate small probabilities, one proposes the use of the important splitting method. This algorithm is applied on realistic situations of aircraft conflict.<p />
LA  - 
SN  - 0925-7535
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2012.05.010
ID  - ref1
ER  -