TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2012//
TI  - Dynamic statistical model selection: Application to traffic accident analysis in Spain
JO  - Procedia - social and behavioral sciences
A1  - Dadashova, Bahar
A1  - Ramírez, Blanca Arenas
A1  - McWilliams, José M. Mira
A1  - Izquierdo, Francisco Aparicio
SP  - 642
EP  - 652
VL  - 48
IS  - 
N2  - Four time series: number and severity of both van accidents and victims in Spanish roads have been estimated using two main types of methodologies which are applied in the study of traffic accidents: demand for road use, accidents and their gravity (DRAG) and unobserved components model (UCM). Each model was estimated using explanatory and intervention variables that were divided into 9 groups. The explanatory variables were included in the models depending on how significant their t-values were. The final models were chosen using fit statistics such as AIC and R2. Finally, predictions were obtained by both methodologies and the prediction errors were compared. None of the two methods was clearly better; it depended on which response variable was being predicted.<p />
LA  - en
SN  - 1877-0428
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2012.06.1042
ID  - ref1
ER  -