TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2014//
TI  - Improving the operational methodology of tropical cyclone seasonal prediction in the Australian and the South Pacific Ocean regions
JO  - Advances in meteorology
A1  - Wijnands, J. S.
A1  - Shelton, K.
A1  - Kuleshov, Y.
SP  - 1
EP  - 8
VL  - 2014
IS  - 
N2  - Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have a major impact on the coastal communities of Australia and Pacific Island countries. Preparedness is one of the key factors to limit TC impacts and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues an outlook of TC seasonal activity ahead of TC season for the Australian Region (AR; 5°S to 40°S, 90°E to 160°E) and the South Pacific Ocean (SPO; 5°S to 40°S, 142.5°E to 120°W). This paper investigates the use of support vector regression models and new explanatory variables to improve the accuracy of seasonal TC predictions. Correlation analysis and subsequent cross-validation of the generated models showed that the Dipole Mode Index (DMI) performs well as an explanatory variable for TC prediction in both AR and SPO, Niño4 SST anomalies—in AR and Niño1<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1687-9309
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/838746
ID  - ref1
ER  -