TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2014//
TI  - An accident data-based approach for congestion risk assessment of inland waterways: a Yangtze River case
JO  - Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of risk and reliability
A1  - Zhang, Di
A1  - Yan, Xinping
A1  - Yang, Zaili
A1  - Wang, Jin
SP  - 176
EP  - 188
VL  - 228
IS  - 2
N2  - Inland waterway transportation is often claimed to be reliable, congestion-free, economic and environmentally friendly. However, inland waterway transport accidents such as groundings cause congestions that can easily reduce the navigational capability of the waterways with confined channel dimensions particularly during a dry season. An accident data-based approach is presented in this article to assess the congestion risk of inland waterways using a case of the Yangtze River. Through a correlation analysis of historical failure data, the safety critical factors of congestion are first identified and used to establish a Bayesian network for the analysis and prediction of the congestion risk in the Yangtze River. A Congestion Risk Index is then developed by taking into account both probability and consequence of congestion risks in order to evaluate the impacts of various safety critical factors (i.e. Visibility, Gross Tonnage, etc.) on the congestion of the Yangtze River. The outcomes of this work can be used to effectively diagnose and predict the congestion risks of inland waterways in general and the Yangtze River in specific.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1748-006X
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006X13508107
ID  - ref1
ER  -