TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2014//
TI  - The predictability of high-risk zones for heat-related mortality in seven US cities
JO  - Natural hazards
A1  - Hondula, David M.
A1  - Davis, Robert E.
SP  - 771
EP  - 788
VL  - 74
IS  - 2
N2  - Heat-related mortality remains a public health challenge in the United States. The objective of this study was to determine the temporal consistency of high-risk zones for heat-related mortality using historical georeferenced mortality data from seven US cities. A generalized additive model was used to identify city-specific threshold temperatures associated with increased mortality, and then the mortality rate on threshold-exceeding days was calculated for each postal code comprising each study city. This process was iterated by withholding subsets of data from the model and assessing predictability via cross-validation. In all cities, the average mortality rate in postal codes targeted for intervention by the statistical model was higher than that in non-targeted areas. Targeted areas for interventions in the study data accounted for 50 % of excess heat-related deaths despite only accounting for 25 % of total mortality. Focusing intervention measures at certain geographical zones within urban areas could be an effective means of combating heat-related mortality because there is temporal consistency in places where the death rate is most sensitive to heat.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0921-030X
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-014-1213-5
ID  - ref1
ER  -