TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2014//
TI  - Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture
JO  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
A1  - Dixon, Timothy H.
A1  - Jiang, Yan
A1  - Malservisi, Rocco
A1  - McCaffrey, Robert
A1  - Voss, Nicholas
A1  - Protti, Marino
A1  - Gonzalez, Victor
SP  - 17039
EP  - 17044
VL  - 111
IS  - 48
N2  - The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0027-8424
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1412299111
ID  - ref1
ER  -