TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2015//
TI  - Modeling and forecasting of under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah Province of Iran: a time series analysis
JO  - Epidemiology and health
A1  - Rostami, Mehran
A1  - Jalilian, Abdollah
A1  - Hamzeh, Behrooz
A1  - Laghaei, Zahra
SP  - e2015003
EP  - e2015003
VL  - 37
IS  - 
N2  - OBJECTIVES: The target of fourth Millennium Development Goal (MDG-4) is effort to reduce the rate of under-five mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. Despite substantial progress towards achieving the target of MDG-4 in Iran at the national level, differences at the sub-national levels should be taken into consideration. <br><br>METHODS: The under-five mortality data available in deputy of public health, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, was used in order to perform a time series analysis on monthly under-five mortality rate (U5MR) during 2005 to 2012 in Kermanshah province, the west of Iran. After primary analysis, a seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was chosen as the best fitting model based on model selection criteria. <br><br>RESULTS: The model was assessed and proved to be adequate in describing variations in the data. However, unexpected presence of a stochastic increasing trend and a seasonal component with periodicity of six months in the fitted model are very likely to be a consequence of poor quality of data collection and reporting systems. <br><br>CONCLUSIONS: The present work is the first attempt in time series modeling of U5MR in Iran, which reveals that improvement of under-five mortality data collection in health facilities and their corresponding systems is a major challenge ahead in fully achieving MGD-4 in Iran. Studies similar to the present work can enhance the understanding of the invisible patterns in U5MR, monitor progress towards MGD-4 and predict the impact of future variations in U5MR. [SafetyLit note: The incidence of injury mortality is not presented separately from all-cause mortality for this age group.]<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 2092-7193
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.4178/epih/e2015003
ID  - ref1
ER  -