TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2015//
TI  - Probabilistic modelling of security of supply in gas networks and evaluation of new infrastructure
JO  - Reliability engineering and system safety
A1  - Praks, Pavel
A1  - Kopustinskas, Vytis
A1  - Masera, Marcelo
SP  - 254
EP  - 264
VL  - 144
IS  - 
N2  - The paper presents a probabilistic model to study security of supply in a gas network. The model is based on Monte-Carlo simulations with graph theory, and is implemented in the software tool ProGasNet. The software allows studying gas networks in various aspects including identification of weakest links and nodes, vulnerability analysis, bottleneck analysis, evaluation of new infrastructure etc. In this paper ProGasNet is applied to a benchmark network based on a real EU gas transmission network of several countries with the purpose of evaluating the security of supply effects of new infrastructure, either under construction, recently completed or under planning. The probabilistic model enables quantitative evaluations by comparing the reliability of gas supply in each consuming node of the network.<p />
LA  - en
SN  - 0951-8320
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2015.08.005
ID  - ref1
ER  -