TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2015//
TI  - Comparison of simple vs. performance-based fall prediction models: data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study
JO  - Gerontology and geriatric medicine
A1  - Gadkaree, Shekhar K.
A1  - Sun, Daniel Q.
A1  - Huang, Jin
A1  - Varadhan, Ravi
A1  - Agrawal, Yuri
SP  - ePub
EP  - ePub
VL  - 1
IS  - ePub
N2  - OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive ability of standard falls prediction models based on physical performance assessments with more parsimonious prediction models based on self-reported data. <br><br>DESIGN: We developed a series of fall prediction models progressing in complexity and compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) across models. SETTING: National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS), which surveyed a nationally-representative sample of Medicare enrollees (age ≥65) at baseline (Round 1: 2011-12) and one-year follow-up (Round 2: 2012-3). PARTICIPANTS: 6056 community-dwelling individuals who participated in Rounds 1 and 2 of NHATS. MEASUREMENTS: Primary outcomes were one-year incidence of "any fall" and "recurrent falls". Prediction models were compared and validated in development and validation sets, respectively. <br><br>RESULTS: A prediction model that included demographic information, self-reported problems with balance and coordination, and previous fall history was the most parsimonious model that optimized AUC for both any fall (AUC=0.69, 95% CI 0.67-0.71) and recurrent falls (AUC=0.77, 95% CI 0.74-0.79) in the development set. Physical performance testing provided marginal additional predictive value. <br><br>CONCLUSION: A simple clinical prediction model that does not include physical performance testing could facilitate routine, widespread falls risk screening in the ambulatory care setting.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 2333-7214
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2333721415584850
ID  - ref1
ER  -