TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2016//
TI  - Long-term forecasting oriented to urban expressway traffic situation
JO  - Advances in mechanical engineering
A1  - Su, Fei
A1  - Dong, Honghui
A1  - Jia, Limin
A1  - Qin, Yong
A1  - Tian, Zhao
SP  - e1687814016628397
EP  - e1687814016628397
VL  - 8
IS  - 1
N2  - Long-term traffic forecasting has become a basic and critical work in the research on road traffic congestion. It plays an important role in alleviating road traffic congestion and improving traffic management quality. According to the problem that long-term traffic forecasting is short of systematic and effective methods, a long-term traffic situation forecasting model is proposed in this article based on functional nonparametric regression. In the functional nonparametric regression framework, autocorrelation analysis (ACF) is introduced to analyze the autocorrelation coefficient of traffic flow for selecting the state vector, and the functional principal component analysis is also used as distance function for computing proximities between different traffic flow time series. The experiments based on the traffic flow data in Beijing expressway prove that the functional nonparametric regression model outperforms forecast methods in accuracy and effectiveness.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 1687-8132
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1687814016628397
ID  - ref1
ER  -