TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2016//
TI  - Let's talk about the weather - interpretation of short term changes in road accident outcomes
JO  - Transportation research procedia
A1  - Martensen, Heike
A1  - Focant, Nathalie
A1  - Diependaele, Kevin
SP  - 96
EP  - 104
VL  - 14
IS  - 
N2  - The monthly road traffic accident victim numbers in Belgium (2003-2014) were analyzed in latent trend time series models separately for pedestrians, cyclists, moped riders, car occupants and road user types jointly. For each road-user type the effect of a range of meteorological variables was tested. The resulting models allow a detailed view on the weather effects for different modes of transport. The strongest effects are observed for two-wheelers (motorcyclists and cyclists), with snow leading to a reduction in victim numbers while warm and sunny weather leads to an increase. The effect of rain differs according to the road user type involved.     The principles of state-space time series modelling are described along with the treatment of multicollinearity in models with several predicting variables. An outlook is given of the potential uses of the resulting models.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 2352-1465
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2016.05.045
ID  - ref1
ER  -