TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2016//
TI  - Heat-related mortality in Cyprus for current and future climate scenarios
JO  - Science of the total environment
A1  - Heaviside, Clare
A1  - Tsangari, Haritini
A1  - Paschalidou, Anastasia
A1  - Vardoulakis, Sotiris
A1  - Kassomenos, Pavlos
A1  - Georgiou, Kyriakos E.
A1  - Yamasaki, Edna N.
SP  - 627
EP  - 633
VL  - 569-570
IS  - 
N2  - Extreme temperatures have long been associated with adverse health impacts, ranging from minor illness, to increased hospitalizations and mortality. Heat-related mortality during summer months is likely to become an increasing public health problem in future due to the effects of climate change. We performed a health impact assessment for heat-related mortality for the warm months of April-September for the years 2004 to 2009 inclusive, for the city of Nicosia and for Cyprus as a whole, based on separately derived exposure-response functions. We further estimated the potential future heat-related mortality by including climate projections for southern Europe, which suggest changes in temperature of between 1°C and 5°C over the next century. There were 32 heat-related deaths per year in Cyprus over the study period. When adding the projected increase in temperature due to climate change, there was a substantial increase in mortality: for a 1°C increase in temperature, heat related mortality in Cyprus was estimated to double to 64 per year, and for a 5°C increase, heat-related mortality was expected to be 8 times the baseline rate for the warm season (281 compared with 32). This analysis highlights the importance of preparing for potential health impacts due to heat in Cyprus, particularly under a changing climate.<br><br>Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0048-9697
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.06.138
ID  - ref1
ER  -