TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2016//
TI  - Moments in time: temporal patterns in the effect of democracy and trade on conflict
JO  - Conflict management and peace science
A1  - Nieman, Mark David
SP  - 273
EP  - 293
VL  - 33
IS  - 3
N2  - Building on economic norms theory, I argue that the causes of international conflict may be contextual rather than constant over time. I explore the temporal patterns in the predictors of conflict in data on European conflict between 1870 and 2001, using an endogenous Markov chain Monte Carlo Poisson change-point model. I find that the period can be divided into two time periods, different in terms of the direction of the effect of the main conflict predictors. While democracy has a positive effect on conflict in the period between 1870 and 1938, it has a negative effect from 1938 to 2001. Likewise, trade initially has no impact on conflict, but later exerts a pacifying effect. Post-estimation analyses suggest that such patterns are best explained by the externalization of contractual norms, which is consistent with economic norms theory.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0738-8942
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0738894215570427
ID  - ref1
ER  -