TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2016//
TI  - Rebalancing health service use for older people: simulating policy-relevant scenarios under demographic ageing
JO  - New Zealand medical journal
A1  - Lay-Yee, Roy
A1  - Pearson, Janet
A1  - von Randow, Martin
A1  - Kerse, Ngaire
A1  - Brown, Laurie
SP  - 25
EP  - 35
VL  - 129
IS  - 1442
N2  - AIMS: The demographic ageing of New Zealand society has greatly increased the proportion of older people (aged 65 years and over), with major policy implications. We tested the effects on health service use of alterations to morbidity profile and the balance of care. <br><br>METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model using data from an official national health survey series to generate a synthetic replicate for scenario testing. <br><br>RESULTS: Projections on current settings from 2001 to 2021 showed increases in morbidity-long-term illness (2%)-and in health service use-doctor visits (21%), public hospital admissions (16%). Scenarios with decreasing morbidity levels showed moderate reductions in health service use. By contrast, rebalancing towards the use of practice nurses showed a large decrease in public hospital admissions for people aged 85 years and over. <br><br>CONCLUSION: Demographic ageing may not have a major negative effect on system resources in New Zealand and other developed countries. Rebalancing between modalities of care may soften the impact of increasing health service use required by a larger older population.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0028-8446
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/
ID  - ref1
ER  -