TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2014//
TI  - Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017
JO  - African journal of medicine and medical sciences
A1  - Jomah, N. D.
A1  - Ojo, J. F.
A1  - Odigie, E. A.
A1  - Olugasa, B. O.
SP  - 87
EP  - 95
VL  - 43 Suppl
IS  - 
N2  - OBJECTIVE: The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. <br><br>METHODS: A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. <br><br>RESULTS: The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. <br><br>CONCLUSION: This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.<p />  <p>Keywords: Animal Bites; Dog Bites<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0309-3913
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/
ID  - ref1
ER  -