TY  - JOUR
PY  - 2017//
TI  - An evidential reasoning-based CREAM to human reliability analysis in maritime accident process
JO  - Risk analysis
A1  - Wu, Bing
A1  - Yan, Xinping
A1  - Wang, Yang
A1  - Soares, C. Guedes
SP  - 1936
EP  - 1957
VL  - 37
IS  - 10
N2  - This article proposes a modified cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM) for estimating the human error probability in the maritime accident process on the basis of an evidential reasoning approach. This modified CREAM is developed to precisely quantify the linguistic variables of the common performance conditions and to overcome the problem of ignoring the uncertainty caused by incomplete information in the existing CREAM models. Moreover, this article views maritime accident development from the sequential perspective, where a scenario- and barrier-based framework is proposed to describe the maritime accident process. This evidential reasoning-based CREAM approach together with the proposed accident development framework are applied to human reliability analysis of a ship capsizing accident. It will facilitate subjective human reliability analysis in different engineering systems where uncertainty exists in practice.<br><br>© 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.<p />  <p>Language: en</p>
LA  - en
SN  - 0272-4332
UR  - http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/risa.12757
ID  - ref1
ER  -